(FreedomJournal.org)- If there’s one thing we have learned in recent elections it’s that bookmakers are often better at predicting the outcomes of elections than the pollsters. In 2016 and 2020, bookmakers gave Republicans better odds of winning than the pollsters did, and in both instances, the pollsters were very wrong.
So for this reason, the fact that bookmakers still haven’t called the election for Joe Biden is very interesting. Some $600 million in bets remains in limbo across various gambling sites and bookmakers as the result of the 2020 election hangs in the balance, with President Donald Trump pursuing lawsuits in various battleground sites.
While CNN calls Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden the “president-elect,” bookmakers aren’t doing the same.
According to the New York Post, the $600 million figure comes from just one bookmakers – Betfair, which is based in London. It means that many more millions of dollars could be hanging in the balance elsewhere, with those who bet on Joe Biden biting their nails and hoping President Trump’s lawsuits don’t succeed.
Adam Burns, a sportsbook manager for Bet Online, told the New York Post that they haven’t graded a winner as they believe the president’s lawsuits could impact the ultimate result.
“People who bet Trump say it is not over,” he said. “People who bet Biden say it is. This makes for a tricky situation where we have to be sure. It’s not like a football game.”
If the results of the election were really concluded, bookmakers would be cashing out. However, with the presidential election taking in more money from bets than the super bowl – which Burns said is usually the biggest event of the year – dishing out cash on a result that could later change would be catastrophic for the business.
“We kept taking action, with fluctuating odds for a few days after the election,” he added. “But now the bet is no longer available and we’re hoping for an official decision.”
The official decision will come after the results in each state are certified and the electors from those states meet and cast their votes. The United States is a Constitutional Republic and not a Democracy, meaning that the next president will be decided by electors – and those electors may not necessarily vote the way it appears right now. If lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan see the results change, the election result could become very different.
Trump still has a shot at winning this.